March 13, 2025, India's recent decision to lift the ban on exporting 100% broken rice may not immediately lead to regaining its former market share. The ban, which was imposed in September 2022, resulted in a significant buildup of rice stocks and a decline in international prices. Before the ban, India was a major exporter of broken rice, shipping between 10 to 12 lakh tonnes annually. However, during the ban, countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan filled the gap, offering competitive prices that have made it difficult for India to regain its market share. Currently, Indian broken rice is priced higher than that of its competitors, with Vietnam and Pakistan offering it at around $307 per tonne, compared to India's $330 per tonne. This price difference, combined with the existing strong demand from sectors like ethanol production and poultry feed, complicates India's efforts to woo back global buyers. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in ethanol demand, which has added another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. Despite these challenges, the lifting of the ban is expected to alleviate India's storage woes and potentially reduce global rice prices. The government's decision to allow exports could also benefit African nations by making rice more affordable. However, to regain its market share, India may need to adjust its pricing strategy to compete effectively with other Asian suppliers.

March 12, 2025, India's edible oil imports in February 2025 plummeted to their lowest level since May 2020, marking an 8% decline compared to the same period last year. The total imports of edible oils reached 8.85 lakh tonnes, down from 9.58 lakh tonnes in February 2024, according to data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA). This decline was primarily driven by significant reductions in soy oil and sunflower oil imports, which fell by 36% and 20.8%, respectively. The decrease in imports has been cushioned by high stock levels accumulated in India up to November 2024. However, with stocks now below 2 million tonnes, there is an expectation of increased purchases, particularly of palm oil, in the coming months. Despite the overall decline, palm oil imports surged by 35.7% in February compared to January, reaching 373,549 metric tons. This increase is still lower than the monthly average of 750,000 tons recorded in the previous marketing year. The high price premium on palm oil has reduced its imports and consumption, leading to a sharp increase in the demand for soybean oil and sunflower oil. As a result, the share of palm oil in total vegetable oil imports decreased from 66% to 43%, while the share of soft oils like soybean and sunflower rose to 57% from 34%. The growth in vegetable oil consumption is expected to slow down in the 2024-25 oil year, prompting India to potentially increase its imports to meet domestic demand.

March 12, 2025, The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has appealed to the Indian government to maintain current import duties on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal. This request comes amidst ongoing bilateral trade negotiations with the United States. SOPA emphasizes that reducing these duties could lead to an influx of low-cost imports from the US, which would undermine India's domestic soybean production and adversely affect the livelihoods of about 10 million soybean farmers and associated industries. India is among the top five global producers of soybeans, with an estimated production of approximately 13 million metric tons in the 2023–2024 fiscal year. However, the US has significantly higher productivity levels, primarily due to genetically modified crops, yielding about 3 tons per hectare compared to India's 1.2 tons per hectare. SOPA suggests exploring concessional duty arrangements for value-added soy products like soy protein isolates and concentrates to promote innovation in India's food processing sector without competing with raw soybean markets. Furthermore, SOPA has requested the government to address the steep countervailing duty of 283.91% imposed by the US on organic soybean meal imports from India, which has hindered Indian exporters' competitiveness in the US market. The association believes that protecting domestic soybean production is crucial for achieving self-sufficiency in edible oils and supporting the National Mission on Edible Oils (Oilseeds).

March 11, 2025, The Indian big cardamom market is witnessing a slowdown in prices, with auction prices experiencing a slight decline despite low arrivals. The wholesale market is also stabilizing after a recent drop, reflecting broader trends in the industry. The price of Kainchi Cut big cardamom has fallen to USD 1.99-2.00 per kg, marking a decrease of USD 0.14-0.16 per kg from previous levels. In the latest auction on March 6, average prices ranged between USD 1.74-2.22 per kg. The reduced arrivals at auctions are attributed to severe weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and floods in Assam, Meghalaya, and other parts of the Northeast. These adverse weather events have caused significant damage to the big cardamom crop, with the first crop suffering losses of up to 70%. The second crop is also expected to be weak, further limiting supply. Similar crop damage has been reported in Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, exacerbating the supply constraints. Despite these challenges, the overall market for cardamom is expected to grow, driven by increasing demand in the pharmaceutical and culinary sectors. However, the current supply disruptions are likely to keep prices volatile in the short term. The Indian big cardamom market's performance is closely tied to global trends, with Asia-Pacific being the largest market for cardamom, and it is projected to continue growing at a significant rate over the next few years.

March 11, 2025, The global walnut market is experiencing significant growth, driven by favorable weather conditions and robust demand. In China, the early crop forecast for walnuts has been revised upward to 1.55 million metric tons, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. This rise is attributed to favorable weather, which has also led to a surge in exports. Between September and November 2024, China's in-shell exports increased by 97% to 113,327 MT, while shelled exports rose by 77% to 35,698 MT compared to the same period in 2023. In early 2025, walnut prices in China remained firm due to strong demand ahead of the Spring Festival. The market is expected to stay strong as premium variety stocks are quickly depleted, tightening supply before the next harvest. In the United States, walnut shipments through January 2025 have been robust, matching or exceeding last year's record levels across Asia and Europe. Despite a shorter 2024 crop, there is very little uncommitted carry-out anticipated. Heavy precipitation in Northern California replenished reservoirs, while January's weather provided sufficient chilling hours. With a significant portion of existing acreage being young and densely planted, the future supply outlook is promising. Chile is also anticipating a strong harvest in 2025, with production expected to reach around 168,200 MT despite a reduced planted area. Favorable conditions are driving this growth, which could benefit from increased demand and favorable market conditions. Globally, the walnut market is projected to continue growing, driven by consumer awareness of walnuts' health benefits and expanding distribution channels. The market size is expected to reach $9.26 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 4.9% to reach $11.77 billion by 2030. This growth is supported by rising health awareness, increasing demand for plant-based protein, and innovations in walnut-based products.

March 13, 2025,India's mustard production for the Rabi 2024-25 season is projected to be 115.16 lakh tonnes by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), significantly lower than the government's estimate of 128.73 lakh tonnes. Despite an increase in acreage to 92.15 lakh hectares, surpassing the government's estimate of 89.30 lakh hectares, challenges persist in achieving edible oil self-sufficiency. Rajasthan leads in mustard production with an estimated output of 52.45 lakh tonnes on 34.74 lakh hectares, followed by Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh with projected outputs of 14.66 lakh tonnes and 15.60 lakh tonnes, respectively1. The current Minimum Support Price (MSP) for mustard is ₹5,950 per quintal, but prices may drop with increased supply, necessitating government intervention to protect farmers. India's heavy reliance on edible oil imports remains a major concern, with the SEA emphasizing the need to boost domestic oilseed production. The government aims for 17 million tonnes of mustard production by 2025-26, but current levels fall short of this goal16. Factors such as water shortages and low profits have led to reduced sowing areas, further complicating India's path to self-sufficiency in oilseeds.

March 11, 2025, The Indian government has confirmed that rice exports from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to the European Union have been completely aflatoxin-free for the past five years. This achievement highlights the effectiveness of India's agricultural practices and regulatory compliance in meeting stringent EU standards. In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada noted that while there have been a few instances of aflatoxin detection in rice exports from other regions, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have maintained a flawless record. The volume of rice exports from India to the EU has seen significant growth, with non-basmati rice exports increasing by 500% between 2019 and 2023. This surge surpasses the growth in ASEAN countries, underscoring India's expanding presence in the European market. To ensure compliance with Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) set by importing nations, including the EU, state agriculture departments and universities conduct capacity-building programs for growers to adopt good agricultural practices and judiciously use agrochemicals. The MRLs for aflatoxin vary across countries, with the EU setting a limit of 2 mg/kg, compared to 20 mg/kg in the US and 10 mg/kg as per India's Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI). The government's emphasis on maintaining high standards has helped Indian exporters maintain access to the lucrative